No brilliant election analysis here, I'm afraid

The numbers from the pollsters all seem to indicate another minority Tory government, with a few outliers offering up the possibility of a Grit minority. I have no special insight into the process (this time, unlike last election, I've been too busy to run my own polling spreadsheet . . . which is just as well, as it wasn't all that close to predicting the result).

In general terms, I think the Liberals are lucky to be polling as well as they are, given the awful campaign Dion has run. The Tories aren't doing as well as I'd expected them to, but the US economic picture has arrested everyone's attention for much of the campaign, and for good reason. The NDP were running well early in the campaign, but either they decided to pull back (to avoid eating away too much Liberal support) or the media decided to stop giving them the same level of coverage they got in the opening weeks. The Bloc? Not registering in the "rest of Canada" outside Duceppe's debate performance. The Greens? I think Elizabeth May has done much damage to her party's short-term future by climbing aboard the Liberal bandwagon too obviously . . . and the on-again, off-again, on-again strategic vote thing? Just reinforces the Green Party's lingering "fringe lunatic" reputation.

Actual seat prediction? I dunno . . . 146 Tory, 90 Liberal, 40 Bloc, 30 NDP, 1 Green, 1 Ind. That'll give me something to disavow sometime later this evening . . .