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June 02, 2009

The return of Stagflation?

Jim Davidson points out some uncomfortable similarities between our current economic picture and the nadir of hope that was the late 1970s:

Now, sure, that's just one price. Other prices will vary significantly. But if you thought high gasoline prices were a thing of the past, be assured they are not. The government is printing money as though Obama believes there is no tomorrow.

If the current rate of change continues, by 24 August 2009 we should see $4.08 per gallon gasoline. Which might be good for another major financial crisis just in time for the start of the new school year.

[. . .]

However, the way to bet is not that the rate of inflation in fuel prices continues at the current rate, and not that it drops, but that the rate of change increases, that the price of energy surges upward. Why is that the way to bet? Because the government has abandoned plans to tax their way out of economic calamity, has found no buyers for its debt instruments so it cannot deficit spend with increased indebtedness to solve its problems, but, rather, has fixed on a plan to print its way out of the economic mess. (The option of cutting entire lists of government programs has only been mentioned by Ron Paul, who was called a psycho for doing so on "the Ed Show" which tells us what the establishment thinks.

So, as they print ever more money, as the Federal Reserve monetises the debt by buying government debt which won't sell overseas, the rate of inflation should escalate. I would expect it to go up dramatically, as it did in 1979. Probably without any stop, this time.

Posted by Nicholas at June 2, 2009 10:20 AM
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